On 16 September the Federal Reserve raised its target range a quarter point, to 3.75 to 4.00 percent, its first increase since 2023 (Federal Reserve, 16 Sept 2026). Since then, the conversation has been about the next meeting, on 27 and 28 October. New York Fed President John Williams said on 29 September there was no need for urgency, and futures-implied odds of an October hike fell below a coin flip (24/7 Wall St, 30 Sept 2026). Then September payrolls came in at just 29,000 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2 Oct 2026).
Will they or won't they. For a borrower with floating-rate debt, that question matters. For anyone pricing a five or ten-year fixed loan, it mostly does not.
The rate that actually moved
Fixed-rate commercial loans are usually priced as a spread over a Treasury yield, most often the five or ten-year. Here is what the ten-year did, from the Federal Reserve's own daily series (Federal Reserve H.15; FRED DGS10):
| Date | 10-year Treasury |
|---|---|
| 22 Sept | 4.96% |
| 25 Sept | 5.17% |
| 28 Sept | 5.24% |
| 29 Sept | 5.26% |
| 30 Sept | 5.29% |
| 1 Oct | 5.24% |
From 22 to 30 September the ten-year rose 33 basis points. The Fed's September move was 25. Lenders noticed: at a Bisnow event on 1 October, AEW said rates had jumped 75 basis points in 30 days, and panelists expected leverage to come down and values to reset (Bisnow, 1 Oct 2026).
At the short end, the policy move had already passed through: Prime was 7.00 percent and overnight SOFR 3.87 percent on 1 October (Federal Reserve H.15). Those indexes will move again only if the Fed does.
What 33 basis points does to a loan
The example below is illustrative: the spread and coverage minimum are assumptions to show the arithmetic, not a quote.
A property with $900,000 of net operating income is sized at a 1.25x DSCR on a 30-year amortization, with the rate set at the ten-year plus 2.00 percent.
| 10-year at 4.96% (22 Sept) | 10-year at 5.29% (30 Sept) | |
|---|---|---|
| Loan rate | 6.96% | 7.29% |
| Annual loan constant | 7.951% | 8.219% |
| Maximum loan at 1.25x | $9,054,987 | $8,760,512 |
$294,475 less loan, about 3.25 percent of proceeds, in eight days. No vote, no press conference, and no change in the building.
Look at it from the payment side and the same move adds $26,728 a year of debt service to a $10 million loan.
If coverage is the test that binds on your deal, this is your whole story. If loan-to-value or debt yield binds instead, the rate move matters less to proceeds, which is exactly why it pays to know which test sizes your loan before you start watching rates. We walked through that in DSCR Is Almost Never the Number That Sizes Your Loan.
Why the long end moved without the Fed
The ten-year is not set by the Fed. It reflects what investors expect short-term rates and inflation to average over a decade, plus a premium for holding long-dated debt. It can rise when the Fed is on hold and fall when the Fed is hiking. In September, the Fed's statement said inflation "remains elevated" (Federal Reserve, 16 Sept 2026), and Williams put inflation at 3.7 percent (24/7 Wall St, 30 Sept 2026). Long-dated investors priced that in on their own schedule.
What to watch instead
- The Treasury that matches your loan term. A five-year fixed loan prices off the five-year (5.01 percent on 1 October), a ten-year off the ten-year.
- The date on every quote. A quote from 22 September and a quote from 30 September are not comparable without adjusting for the benchmark move. Ask every lender which index and which date.
- Your binding test. If coverage binds, every basis point matters. If leverage binds, focus on value and your comps.
- The spread, not just the index. The index is public. The spread is what lenders compete on, and it is the part of your rate you can actually negotiate.
Check the current commercial loan rates with their dates before you model anything.
The question to ask on Monday
Not "will the Fed hike in October." Ask: "what is my loan priced off, what was it on the day of my quote, and which test sizes my loan?" The first question is for the news. The second one decides the deal.
Finance Lobby puts underwriting, the deal memo, comps and lender matching in one place, and brings back competing quotes you can compare on rate, proceeds and structure.
Start your deal on Finance Lobby
FAQ
Does a Fed rate hike raise commercial mortgage rates? It raises floating-rate loans priced off SOFR or Prime quickly. Fixed-rate commercial loans are usually priced off Treasury yields, which move on their own schedule and can move more or less than the Fed.
What rate are fixed commercial loans priced off? Usually a spread over the Treasury yield that matches the loan term, most often the five-year or ten-year Treasury.
How much did the 10-year Treasury move in late September 2026? It rose from 4.96 percent on 22 September to 5.29 percent on 30 September, a 33 basis point move, according to the Federal Reserve's H.15 data.
How does a rate change affect my loan amount? If DSCR sizes the loan, a higher rate raises debt service and lowers the maximum loan. In our example, a 33 basis point move cut maximum proceeds by $294,475 on $900,000 of net operating income.
When is the next FOMC meeting? 27 and 28 October 2026, followed by 8 and 9 December.